Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela: Will there be war?

Following the Colombian military incursion into the early hours of Saturday, March in Ecuador to kill Raul Reyes and 18 other fighters of the FARC, Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa denounced the violation of national sovereignty. He also said that Colombian President? Alvaro Uribe lied when he reported that his troops were pursuing such action with these 'terrorists'. According to Correa what happened was a 'slaughter' made against people who were sleeping and using the support of a great power (thus suggesting that the U.S. was behind it).

Bogotá has several versions. The initial chased his troops "terrorists? whom they overtook on the southern border, but then the medical examiner said Reyes's body showed to have been sleeping and Oscar Naranjo, Colombia's police chief, said that the FARC base was mobile but not fixed (and It shows that there are ties with the government of Quito).

After that Quito has expelled the Colombian Embassy and this, like Caracas have retreated to their embassies in Bogota, at the same time they have mobilized thousands of troops to its border with Colombia. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has been very emphatic in saying that if Colombia had done something similar on their own soil this would have meant grounds for entering a war. By raising this and to send ten battalions to its western edge, Chavez wants to portray himself as a staunch defender of his nation's sovereignty and interference in the U.S. (whom he accuses of being the power behind Uribe). This incident serves to reinforce his thesis to go into a joint military force of the ALBA. For Teodoro Petkoff, a leader of the opposition, this is a move that seeks to use its president to unite the nation against it and prevent it from continuing to lose support base.

Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua's president, called the "murder? of his "partner? Reyes as a "provocation total? to kill not only him but the peace process, as Reyes was, rather than a military leader, the man who was in contact with governments around the world to direct a peace process and dialogue. To Managua while the FARC was releasing, Uribe's killing. The hardness of Ortega shows not only his position as a former guerrilla commander but also the shock that is his country and Colombia as a result of which both claim to be the owners of the islands of San Andres and Providencia.

The possibilities to produce a military escalation that will be the first war involving more than two South American countries in more than a century there are many, but this has to generate new crises and an arms race. In fact it continues to agonize the Andean Community of Nations, increasingly cracked between its two major partners (Colombia and Peru have made U.S. FTA) and his two partners less populated (Ecuador and Bolivia are part of ALBA). It also affects the bi-national important trade between Venezuela and Colombia (for the republic it represents the second largest market after the U.S., the same that it generated U.S. $ 6.000 million).

Brazil and Panama, two other neighbors of Colombia, are cutting social democratic governments also want a negotiated solution to its internal conflict. Peru, who is more akin to a government of Colombia and a similar experience more internal war, expressed his caution. This, while Lima has previously reported that the FARC attempting to enter its territory and that s just captured several activists "Bolivarian? who gathered at an international conference in Quito who are accused of being "terrorists? seeking to sabotage the summit to be held in Lima between Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean.

Though Uribe has earned international rejection, he will want to raise their domestic bonds. The nation has its high popularity ratings and is to host a massive international anti-FARC march. After this incident he seeks to demonstrate that the FARC leadership is not immune and that he can defeat.

The revival of international tensions will, paradoxically, for both the rightwing Uribe, as leftist rivals Correa and Chavez wants to promote as leaders of their nations. Uribe, despite preferring a military solution to internal conflict, knows he has to be negotiated with the guerrillas, and Chavez, despite the FARC want to legalize and develop into a legal alternative to, you know that for a long time his neighbor will have a military strike against their friends 'Bolivarian' of the FARC.